Date: November 2024

Utility resource planners are increasingly adopting Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) modeling to assess the Resource Adequacy of their generation portfolios. In this convention, Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) is used as a metric to quantify the probabilistic resource adequacy contributions of generation resources, such as solar PV, wind, and battery storage, and considers the impacts of temporal and weather-dependent resource variability along with resource saturation effects. In this presentation, E3 proposes to leverage our recent work on a DOE Connected Communities project, and present our methodology that we developed to incorporate shift and shed demand response into this modeling framework. We will also identify trends in high value hours amid the energy transition. Improved data and modeling will help provide utility planners more certainty in the potential contributions of shift and shed demand response, and will help DER practitioners realize longer-term certainty of the benefits stream of their resources.
 
Discussion Topics:
  • How load management supports decarbonizing the grid (ex. shifting loads from high carbon periods to carbon periods, and avoiding carbon-intensive firm generation from a reliability lens)? 
  • How can load management be used to enable more decarbonization through end use electrification? – new EV and BE loads will pretty quickly run into head room limits in the existing distribution grid, and could be a major barrier to end use decarbonization unless we can manage loads and better utilize the existing (or realistically achievable) distribution grid capacity

Speaker:
Dave Alspector, Tierra Resource Consultants
Mike Sontage, Energy and Environmental Economics

Content:
Presentation Recording:

Course Details